How Many Illegal Aliens?

How Many Illegal Aliens?
 FAIR estimates that in 2007 the illegal alien population is above 13 million persons. Government and academic estimates indicate that as of 2006 there were 11 to 12 million illegal aliens living in the United States. The Center for Immigration Studies estimated the illegal alien population at 10 million as of November 2004.

It is difficult to have an exact figure because the illegal nature of their presence prevents any enumeration, but the U.S. Census Bureau estimated 8.7 million illegal aliens were here in 2000, and immigration officials estimate that the illegal alien population grows by as many as 500,000 every year.

Estimated Distribution of the Illegal Alien Population

The nationalities of the illegal alien population in the Census Bureau estimate and INS estimate for 2000 are as follow:

Region/Country	CB Est.	INS Est.
North and Central America	5,312,990
Mexico	3,871,912	4,808,000
Cuba	216,297
Dominican Republic	17,942	91,000
El Salvador	336,717	189,000
Guatemala	238,977	144,000
Canada	156,231	47,000
Haiti	48,003	76,000
Honduras		138,000
Jamaica	37,666
Trinidad & Tobago	44,178
Otr N&C America	345,067
South America	624,419
Argentina	35,958
Brazil		77,000
Colombia	174,786	141,000
Ecuador	105,197	108,000
Peru	68,174	61,000
Otr S America	240,304
Europe	1,113,683
France	36,477
Germany	113,327
Greece	15,507
Ireland	-2,233
Italy	62,456
Netherlands	17,885
Poland	92,684
Portugal	33,874
Spain	23,816
U.S.S.R. (incl. Est., Lat., Lith.)	344,877
United Kingdom	123,246
Yugoslavia	110,280
Other Europe	141,487
Asia	1,363,419
Middle East	114,818
Iran	30,823
Israel	24,372
Otr M E (incl. Afghanistan)	59,623
South & East Asia	1,248,601
China (incl. Taiwan)	226,886	115,000
India	200,306	70,000
Japan	118,357
Korea	182,621	55,000
Philippines	155,239	85,000
Otr S&E Asia	365,192
Africa	243,342
Oceania	47,568
Australia	16,777
Other Oceania	30,791
All Other		795,000
Total	8,705,421	7,000,000

The estimate by the Immigration and Naturalization Service (INS) issued in February 2003 put the number of resident illegal aliens at seven million (as of Jan. 2000), 4.8 million of whom were Mexican and 2.2 million of whom resided in California. That estimate included the annual rate of increase in the illegal alien population -- 350,000 with 73,200 (31.6%) of that annual increase taking up residence in California. So, by 2003, the illegal alien population would have increased to over eight million.
The method by which the INS arrived at this estimate was based on data collected as a result of the 1986 amnesty and then relied on Census data and INS legal immigration data and airline arrival/departure records for updating the estimate. The estimate included only aliens who continued to reside illegally in the United States for more than one year. Left out of the estimate were aliens doing seasonal work illegally in the United States and all aliens during the first year of overstaying the terms of an authorized nonimmigrant entry, as well groups of illegal alien residents who were issued work permits under programs such as Temporary Protected Status (TPS).
The 2000 Census, like all previous censuses, made no attempt to determine the immigration status of foreign-born residents. Nevertheless, the results of the Census did contribute to a re-evaluation of the size of the illegal alien population. Most analysts agree that the illegal alien population now numbers more than 10-11 million persons as is shown below.
The first estimates that challenged the INS estimates appeared from labor force researchers at Northeastern University.[1] They estimated in 2001 that the illegal alien population could be as large as 11 million. They later revised that estimate upward to 12 million.
The director of the Census Bureau, when asked about the much higher estimate of the illegal alien population agreed that the 2000 Census data indicated that the illegal alien estimate of the INS was too low, but did not offer a different estimate.
In the August 2001 issue of Demography, immigration researchers estimated the current total population of illegal aliens at 7.1 million, of whom 3.9 million were Mexicans. Also in August, a demographer at the Urban Institute issued an estimate that the illegal alien population was 8.5 million, with 4.5 million of them being Mexican.
The Census Bureau issued an estimate in January 2002 that the illegal alien population in 2000 was 8,705,421. That estimate was based on the discrepancy between the number of foreign-born residents and the number of legally admitted immigrants. Included in that number may be aliens residing in the United States under provisions that preclude their deportation, but who are not legal permanent residents, such as beneficiaries of Section 245(i) petitions, or asylees who have not been in the country long enough for adjustment of status, or Central American beneficiaries of the NACARA legislation. The Census Bureau estimate is preliminary and subject to modification after review of the methodology by interested parties.
An independent estimate by analysts of the bear-Stearns investment firm said the illegal alien population “…may be as high as 20 million people.”[2] This estimate dismisses lower official estimates as being flawed by the non-response of illegal alien to census takers. However, this conclusion misses the fact that the official estimates are instead based on a comparison between the growth in the foreign-born population and new legal immigrant arrivals. This allows the trend in the illegal alien population to be observed despite non-response in the Census.
TIME Magazine in a feature article in 2004 published an estimate of three million illegal aliens arriving each year.[3] However, that estimate was based on a mistaken assumption that a million illegal aliens are being apprehended each year and three times as many avoid apprehension. The actual number of persons apprehended is considerably lower than one million because the same individual often may be apprehended multiple times during the year.
The following table shows estimates of the illegal alien population by state by the INS, DHS[4] and the Pew Hispanic Center[5] as well as the current estimates by FAIR. (Numbers are thousands).

State	INS'92	INS'96	INS'00	DHS'05	DHS'06	Pew'02-4	Pew'05	FAIR'07
Ala.	3	4	24			28	40	55
Aka.	2	4	5			5	5	10
Ariz.	95	115	283	480	500	500	425	475
Ark.	4	5	27			28	40	50
Cal.	1,600	2,000	2,209	2,770	2,830	2,400	2,625	3,470
Col.	35	45	144			225	250	270
Ct.	22	29	39			70	85	115
Del.	2	3	7			28	23	20
D.C.	21	30	10			28	25	35
Fla.	270	350	337	850	980	850	863	810
Ga.	26	32	228	470	490	225	400	440
Hi.	6	9	2			28	28	30
Idaho	12	16	19			28	35	35
Ill.	220	290	432	520	550	400	400	775
Ind.	11	14	45			70	70	110
Iowa	5	6	24			70	70	55
Kans.	15	20	47			70	55	90
Ky.	5	6	15			28	45	40
La.	18	22	5			28	35	25
Maine	2	3	3			5	5	5
Md.	33	44	56			225	250	150
Mass.	65	85	87			225	200	250
Mich.	28	37	70			125	125	200
Minn.	6	7	60			70	88	125
Miss.	3	4	8			28	40	20
Mo.	12	16	22			70	50	65
Mont.	1	1	2			5	5	5
Neb.	6	8	24			28	45	45
Nev.	19	24	101	240		125	175	170
N.H.	2	2	2			5	20	15
N.J.	105	135	221	380	430	350	388	490
N.M.	29	37	39			70	63	70
N.Y.	410	540	489	560	540	650	600	1,110
N.C.	20	22	206	360	370	300	350	385
N.D.	1	1	2			5	5	5
Ohio	18	23	40			125	111	115
Okla.	17	21	46			70	63	85
Ore.	27	33	90			125	150	170
Pa.	27	37	49			125	150	140
R.I.	9	12	16			28	30	35
S.C.	4	5	36			28	55	75
S.D.	1	1	2			5	5	5
Tenn.	10	13	46			125	125	100
Texas	530	700	1,041	1,360	1,640	1,400	1,500	1,740
Utah	13	15	65			70	83	125
Vt.	2	3	2			5	5	5
Va.	42	55	103			225	275	205
Wash.	42	52	136		280	225	225	255
W.V.	2	2	2			5	5	5
Wis.	6	8	41			125	93	90
Wyo.	1	2	2			5	5	5
Total	3,865	4,947	7,013	10,760	11,550	10,080	10,803	13,175

Amnesty proposals for granting legal residence to these illegal aliens take various forms, and the number of proposed beneficiaries vary depending on the proposal. For example, in the 1986 general amnesty, illegal aliens other than those in agricultural work were eligible only if they had been living in the United States for four years (since 1982). Thus, the nearly three million beneficiaries did not include illegal aliens who had arrived during the previous four years (unless they presented fraudulent evidence of having arrived earlier, as many of them did).
Although the number of illegal aliens in the country can only be estimated, and it is unclear what form currently proposed amnesty provisions might take, it is safe from the above analysis to conclude that any new amnesty would likely involve as many as four times as many illegal aliens as benefited from the 1986 amnesty.

Updated 10/2007

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[1]"Feds Undercount Illegal Aliens," NewsMax.com, (March 16, 2001).

[2] Robert Justich and Betty Ng, “The Underground Labor Force is Rising to the Surface,” Bear Sterns, January 3, 2005.

[3]Barlett, Donald and James Steele, ”Who Left the Door Open?,” TIME Magazine, September 12, 2004.

[4]The most recent estimates by DHS only show the estimate for the 10 states with the largest illegal alien population
[5] Pew Hispanic Center estimates of the illegal immigration population are stated as a range, e.g., California 2.5 million to 2.75 million.  The chart shows the mid-point of the estimate, e.g. California 2.625 million.

Illegal residents but responsible homeowners

Undocumented immigrants who own homes have a lower rate of delinquencies than U.S. citizens, according to various real estate sources.

By Anna Gorman
Los Angeles Times Staff Writer

October 6, 2008

Three years ago, Jose Perez purchased a small condo northeast of San Francisco for nearly $250,000. Since then, the first-time buyer has watched the housing market collapse.

But Perez has managed better at avoiding foreclosure than thousands of other U.S. homeowners who bought at the peak of the market.

What makes his case special is that Perez is an illegal immigrant.

Home loans held by illegal immigrants in California and across the nation generally have had fewer delinquencies than similar loans held by U.S. citizens, in part because of stricter lending requirements, according to banks, insurers and Realtors.

"Every indication is that their performance is better than the average" mortgage account, said Tim Sandos, president of the National Assn. of Hispanic Real Estate Professionals.

More than 12,000 home loans were issued in recent years through a special program that relies on government-issued taxpayer identification numbers instead of Social Security numbers, according to the association.

The identification numbers, known as ITINs, were designed for foreign-born residents living legally in the U.S. but are widely acknowledged to be used primarily by illegal immigrants.

The real estate association does not keep statistics on foreclosure rates. But it has reported that the delinquency rates for taxpayer identification loans were 1.15% or lower in 2006, compared with about 3.5% for other home loans.

Although illegal immigrants are also feeling the effects of the downturn in the U.S. economy, Sandos and others cite one major factor for the success of taxpayer identification loans: stricter requirements, including larger down payments, pre-purchase counseling and fixed mortgage rates.

But there is another reason, Sandos said.

"They come for the promise of a better future," he said. "They come for the promise of homeownership. Once they have it, they are going to move heaven and Earth to keep it."

Perez said that when he lost his job as a chef, his wife started working as a housecleaner. The couple dipped into their savings to pay the bills. Twice, they paid the mortgage on the 16th, one day past their grace period. But in July, Perez started a new job and resumed his on-time payments.

He said he sees his purchase as a unique opportunity.

"I was surprised that a bank actually was risking their money on a person like me," he said. "But they get their monthly payment with dues. They did a good business."

His agent, Pedro Morlet, said the 30-year fixed rates were crucial for clients who bought homes using their taxpayer identification numbers.

"Their mortgages stayed the same," he said. "They continued with the low payments, while a lot of people saw their mortgages go up $800, $1,200 or $1,500" a month.

So even if the buyers owe more on their mortgages than their homes are worth, they can still afford the payments.

Advocates for tighter immigration controls oppose the idea of illegal residents buying homes in the United States. They say it only encourages illegal immigration.

"I don't believe they should be here to begin with," said Rick Oltman, spokesman for Californians for Population Stabilization. "So I don't believe that they should be . . . going to college on the taxpayer dollar, getting jobs or buying homes."

At least one Chicago bank started issuing taxpayer identification loans in 2000, and several other banks followed. The majority of the loans were issued in the last few years, at the same time that subprime loans hit their peak.

Many of the mortgages nationwide came out of a partnership between Citibank and Acorn Housing, a nonprofit group that helps the poor. Citibank said the taxpayer identification loans have some of the lowest delinquency rates among all affordable-lending programs.

"We believe that it has been a very successful program in terms of delinquencies," said Mark Rodgers, vice president of public affairs for Citi consumer banking. But Rodgers said it was too early to gauge foreclosure rates, because nearly all of its loans are less than 2 years old.

The Hispanic National Mortgage Assn. underwrote more than 2,000 such loans, but only about 20 were in California because of the shortage of affordable housing.

Leonardo Simpser, the association's chief executive, said the loans did "extremely well." In addition to strong pride of ownership among buyers, Simpser attributed the success to the underwriting process. The association accepted nontraditional credit history but was very strict with income requirements.

Despite the success of such loans, availability of new mortgages is starting to drop off. Mary Mancera, spokeswoman for the National Assn. of Hispanic Real Estate Professionals, said this is the result of the larger credit crunch.

"If people with traditional credit history are having a hard time getting money, it stands to reason why these have dried up," she said.

Michael Zimmerman of Mortgage Guarantee Insurance Corp., which insured about 1,000 taxpayer identification loans from 2004 to 2007, said the organization stopped insuring such loans last year because of a lack of demand by lenders.

He said Mortgage Guarantee Insurance is continuing to insure existing loans, which have performed well.

Zimmerman, senior vice president of investor relations, said the company did not do any automatic underwriting but instead relied on rent receipts, pay stubs and tax returns to make sure buyers were able to afford the homes.

Bruce Dorpalen of Acorn Housing said he has seen few foreclosures among undocumented home buyers enrolled in the Citibank program.

He said many buyers own their own businesses, have U.S.-born children and have money saved. If they do get into financial trouble, he said, many have an extended family safety net.

"If someone lost a job, there would be other people stepping in to help find a job or make the payments," he said.

USC professor Dowell Myers, who has studied housing trends among immigrants, said they are an increasingly important part of the housing market, in Los Angeles and around the nation, especially as baby boomers start to sell off. The banks have realized that and have reached out to immigrants, despite their legal status.

"They are judging them based on their character," he said.

"Based on the success of the ITIN mortgage, apparently they are making a good bet."

anna.gorman@latimes.com